CarwilBJ's avatarCarwilBJ's Twitter Archive—№ 38,061

        1. In Tennessee, Kamala Harris lost nearly 89 thousand Biden voters, two-thirds of them in Nashville and Memphis. Almost none of them voted for Trump, who got fewer votes in urban counties than four years ago. Instead they stayed home.
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      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
        Instead of thinking about voters who switched, we need to think about communities that were soured on the Democrats, and different ones that were activated by Trump.
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    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      Looking at differences in vote share (which exit polls and percent results do) may cause us to miss these patterns. Shelby County is not like it's rural neighbors, but looks the same on this measure.
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  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
    Unfortunately, we can't do the math for the latter until all of the votes are in. Be cautious about analyses written before that evidence is in.
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    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      De-motivated urban voters are getting some press attention, but likely not enough. x.com/CarwilBJ/status/1856352632690094276
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