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Team of political scientists reviews sample of voting results in Venezuelan election, estimates wide victory for opposition candidate González. g1.globo.com/mundo/blog/sandra-cohen/post/2024/07/30/contagem-rapida-independente-deu-vitoria-de-gonzalez-sobre-maduro-por-662percent-a-312percent-na-venezuela.ghtml (pt)On twitter.com
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Some caveats here… 1. official results haven't been released in detail, but opposition has published scans of 73% of actas (official tallies) online.Permalink On twitter.com
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2. Team of academics has been anonymized "due to threats" by O Globo.Permalink On twitter.com
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3. There are reasons to worry that the subset of actas obtained by the opposition leans against Maduro.Permalink On twitter.com
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Still, the projected margin is overwhelming and the team reportedly created a sample of 1500 polling stations, diverse as to their politics. Only 951 had actas available.Permalink On twitter.com
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Even if their projection is biased toward Gonzalez, the divergence is evidence of manipulation of the actas by one of the two parties reporting here. Either the CNE or the published ballots are wrong.Permalink On twitter.com
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Falsifying actas would be a Herculean task. Much easier to falsify the count. x.com/CarwilBJ/status/1818085017287057483?t=TY7wG46spmITa5xvAyIzig&s=19Permalink On twitter.com
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// qualifying this last statement until I'm sure that the scans are actually of official documents //Permalink On twitter.com
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