CarwilBJ's avatarCarwilBJ's Twitter Archive—№ 37,111

      1. A quick summary thread on the Venezuelan presidential election. Official results awarded victory to Maduro 51-44 over a a relatively united opposition. Opposition claims they actually won overwhelmingly, allege fraud.
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    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      Given recent fase positives in allegations of fraud—USA 2020, Peru 2021, Brazil 2022—we must have a high standard of proof. And also insist on transparency to verify the results.
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  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
    Venezuelan politics has been in institutional crisis for over a decade, amid deepening economic crisis, and there were limited hopes that electoral participation could resolve this. Prospects don't look good today.
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    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      Committing to the electoral arena requires the incumbent Chavista government to count fairly and transparently. Conversely, it requires the opposition to to truly commit to observing results, and allies to condition sanctions not on the outcome but on the process.
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      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
        This is the argument laid out by fmr Colombian President Samper, an observer with the progressive Puebla Group: x.com/ernestosamperp/status/1816498154252173707
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        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
          Before the election, the government heavily limited opposition participation, barring multiple candidates. wola.org/2024/02/venezuela-ban-opposition-candidates-violates-international-human-rights-standards-and-spirit-of-barbados-agreement/
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          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
            UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Expression detailing pre-election issues reported in Venezuela. x.com/Ginitastar/status/1816881923320611078 (opening phrasing indicates she has not independently verified, std for her position)
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            1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
              Despite these challenges, the opposition block claims that it won a majority of votes on Sunday, partially citing exit polls — which are legally restricted, partially citing its own counts from precinct observation.
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              1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                But legal restrictions were also placed on observers, so the latter counts are necessarily partial. We know from experience that you can't extrapolate from sympathetic regions to unsympathetic ones in polarized countries.
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                1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                  There were some statements applauding a peaceful election day, something that was largely true in most places, but was interrupted by deadly violence in one region last night. x.com/lauradib/status/1817759420132008025 laopinion.co/venezuela/muere-un-hombre-tras-ataque-armado-en-centro-electoral-de-tachira
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                  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                    Which brings us to the count. A normal count would have unfolded gradually with regular updates, but instead there was a six hour pause, followed by an official announcement of the results with 80% of electoral tables counted.
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                    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                      This is, at a minimum, a troubling standard of reporting; the electoral commission essentially acted as both data source and electoral analyst, announcing the election had been called due to an "irreversible tendency," with no data before or after that moment.
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                      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                        To explain the timing, the government now alleges that there was a cyberattack on the CNE last night, perpetrated from "North Macedonia" and linked to the leaders of the electoral opposition. ecuavisa.com/mundo/2024-07-29-tarek-saab-elecciones-venezuela-EX7752204
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                        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                          This too, is an extraordinary claim, that would require extraordinary evidence. It would also imply that the opposition would sabotage the results of an election that all signs indicate it though it won.
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                          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                            Because of widespread scrutiny and a physical paper trail, Venezuelan ballots should be clearly audit-able. english.elpais.com/international/2024-07-27/difficult-to-manipulate-yet-fraught-with-electoral-trickery-how-venezuelas-voting-system-functions.html commondreams.org/newswire/national-lawyers-guild-electoral-observers-praise-fairness-transparency-of-venezuelan-election-process-condemn-the-u-s-backed-oppositions-refusal-to-accept-the-outcome-of-democratic-election Assuming access to the papers nationwide, observers should be able to confirm or deny electoral fraud.
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                            1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                              Only two independent electoral observation teams have the ability to do this, however. x.com/CarwilBJ/status/1817922247874797798 Anyone else claiming to validate or invalidate the results without this probably lacks the evidence to be sure.
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                              1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                                A government beset by international criticism, but confident in its capacity for winning an election should do everything it can to take its hands off the wheel of the electoral mechanisms themselves and claim its victory cleanly. Maduro's party clearly wasn't ready to do that.
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                                1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                                  International non-partisan and center-left voices call for transparency. Far left govts, plus Russia, China accept results. Right govts reject them. (see my timeline for examples)
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