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The current red state GOP agenda is to make trans life both invisible and impossible. @BrynnTannehill/1633113967185870850
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In theory, these laws would enlist teachers, school counselors, doctors. and hospital administrators in a program of mass policing of trans identity and by extension gender non-conformity. But...
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This reactionary offensive being launched in the state houses is confronting a generational wave of gender non-conformity. The result of that clash is unpredictable, even in red states.
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Systematic surveys of transgender identity "estimated that 1.4 percent of 13- to 17-year-olds and 1.3 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds were transgender" based on 2017 to 2020 data. nytimes.com/2022/06/10/science/transgender-teenagers-national-survey.html
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Nonbinary identity and multiple LGBTI+ positions are all larger and growing shares of the student and teacher generations.
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While medical steps toward gender transition, including puberty blockers got youth and surgery for adults, are targeted by legislation, and can be deterred by medical licensing, social transition cannot.
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It's here that these eliminationist laws will either succeed or fail, on the cooperation or resistance of schools, colleges, and communities. Will we stand by our trans and nonbinary students and colleagues? We will defend access to trans health care?
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The institutional collapse that enabled the social ostracization of European Jews, Roma, and homosexuals in the 1930s was grounded in widespread prejudice.
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We may be in a different situation today (due to massive queer identification and allyship) but for that difference to matter, people in institutions must hold to principles and refuse to cooperate with state-mandated persecution.