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Okay as much fun as it is to have three people arguing w me on the internet... My original post is not an argument that people shouldn't have been upset in 2019 or that Evo did nothing wrong. @EcuaComrade/1561509590268723200Permalink On twitter.com
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Rather, as someone physically and mentally shuttling between Bolivia and the US, I'm pointing out a parallel.Permalink On twitter.com
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We all have had the main argument before (fraud/no fraud). I'm looking at a different point: not the error/inaccuracy/manipulation in the result but the raw lead between the parties.Permalink On twitter.com
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The MAS-IPSP remained the numerically largest political force in Bolivia in 2019. Even more so in 2020. This fact may not be pivotal for explaining the Oct-Nov 2019 protests but it's core to Bolivia's present and future.Permalink On twitter.com
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A Lasso scenario, where a right wing opponent catapulted to victory in a December 2019 runoff was definitely thinkable. Arguably, Evo feared it and Mesa expected it.Permalink On twitter.com
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(FWIW, I think Chi voters' behavior in 2019/2020 make that unlikely. But if Evo comes back in 2025, we could see.)Permalink On twitter.com
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Anti-MAS coalitions in Bolivia started 2020 down about 8-10%. Unless and until they convert Evo and Chi voters, they will remain in opposition.On twitter.com
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To the extent that the playing field was uneven, the TSE's reset leveled it. This is the most positive lasting legacy of 2019, a moment that had many grevious costs.Permalink On twitter.com
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Meanwhile, however, Mesa's full-on identification with the Pitita movement left him a weaker challenger in 2020 than in 2019.Permalink On twitter.com