CarwilBJ's Twitter Archive—№ 32,472

What share of abortion patients don't identify as women? Is it "tiny"? Some back of the envelope calculations suggest not…
Permalink On twitter.com ♻️ 1 Retweets ❤️ 2 Favorites 2022 Jul 4 Mood +1 🙂

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
While many of the writers who are publicly troubled by using terms like "pregnant people" or "people with uteruses" are older women, abortion patients skew young. nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/14/upshot/who-gets-abortions-in-america.html
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
Let's do some math now. (I'll get to the caveats later.)
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
Studies of transgender identity "estimated that 1.4 percent of 13- to 17-year-olds and 1.3 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds were transgender" based on 2017 to 2020 data. nytimes.com/2022/06/10/science/transgender-teenagers-national-survey.html
On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
A separate Pew survey found 2.0% of adults 18-29 were trans and another 3.0% were nonbinary. Among 30 to 49 year olds, those numbers were 0.3% and 1.3%.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
Since we don't have a teen nonbinary figure here, I'll assume that it's proportional to the 18-29 figure: 2.4%.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
Now muliplying across ages: under 20: 9% of abortion patients x 4% trans or nonbinary = 0.36% 20-29: 57% x 5.1% = 2.9% 30+: 35% x 1.6% = 0.56%
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
A back-of-the-envelope calculation would suggest that 3.8% of potentially pregnant people, age-adjusted to those who actually seek abortions, are transgender or nonbinary. That's one in 26.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
If transgender and nonbinary people get pregnant and have abortions at the same rate as their age peers, that would mean around 35,000 abortions per year.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
One can imagine a range of factors that might tilt that number in both directions: disproportionately same-sex relationships, different levels of sexual activity, greater economic marginalization, differing views on abortion, etc.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood +3 🙂

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
FWIW, few of these gender identity surveys break down trans men vs trans women, or nonbinary people by sex assigned at birth.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
The most detailed published study I could find on this issue offers a minimum annual number, collected by abortion providers and reported in an triannual survey. sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590151620300022
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
Providers reported 230 abortions to people they knew to be transgender or nonbinary. 40% of providers reported they did not collect such data. The authors extrapolated this to 462 to 530 across all facilities.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
The authors note "our estimate of abortions to TGNB individuals is likely lower than the actual incidence," though their article does not discuss the various (imho, fairly obvious) factors that could contribute to an undercount.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0

…in reply to @CarwilBJ
A separate recruitment-based study of just 1,694 trans and nonbinary individuals who had been pregnant before found 92 abortions among them. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/26895269.2020.1841058 So the clinic survey number is evidently a massive undercount.
Permalink On twitter.com 2022 Jul 4 Mood 0