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In ten months of 2003, Bolivian security forces killed a total of 101 Bolivians during protest campaigns. Yet, ended up conceding the protester's demands in every major conflict. When and how does deadly repression fail? I studied 48 episodes of deadly conflict to find out. 🧵Permalink On twitter.com
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A small-scale example: July 2003 protests in Santa Rosa del Sara demanded jobs, roads, and settlement of a land conflict. They blockaded the highway and shut off a gas pipeline. 350 police and soldiers intervened to quell the protests.Permalink On twitter.com
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The troops were initially able to retake control of the pipeline valve, but were soon confronted by 1,500 of the town’s 4,000 residents. During a three-hour clash, eight civilians and seven troops were wounded; and protester Luis Zelaya Márquez was shot dead.Permalink On twitter.com
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Instead of instilling fear, Zelaya’s death only served to anger the crowd, who proceeded to retake the pipeline valve. Despite their advantage in weapons, security forces backed off.Permalink On twitter.com
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Politicians and the media disavowed the military-police intervention at Santa Rosa del Sara as a failure and even a moral atrocity. The government met protest demands, and named the highway after Zelaya Márquez.Permalink On twitter.com
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Similarly, during the 2003 "Gas War," Bolivian security forces killed at least 59 people in an unsuccessful attempt to stop protests. In the end, the president resigned instead.Permalink On twitter.com
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This is backfire, Brian Martin's (@brianinthegong) term for situations where violent repression generates sympathy for those it attacks, inspires greater mobilization, alienates elites and external supporters.Permalink On twitter.com
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More often than not, when the Bolivian government cracked down over recent decades, their repression backfired. There are 13 cases of movement victories after 3 or more deaths. And just 10 of state success. But…Permalink On twitter.com
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While backfire is the modal outcome of repression in Bolivia, it is not happening when predicted by scholars of backfire, nonviolence, and civil resistance.Permalink On twitter.com
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Here's Erica Chenoweth (@EricaChenoweth) summarizing the turning point brought on by repression: "cultivating resilience, maintaining discipline, and sustaining mass involvement even as the government cracks down on them."Permalink On twitter.com
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Resilience and mass, diverse participation seem crucial to Bolivian movement's success, but maintaining nonviolent discipline does not. How do I know? I divided the cases on this line…Permalink On twitter.com
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Defining the boundaries of nonviolence is a notoriously tricky (and subjective) thing to do, so I instead looked at whether there were violent deaths among security forces.Permalink On twitter.com
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Now, I knew going in that there were some successes in Quadrant 2, where there was deadly state repression but some security forces were also killed. Cases like the 2003 Gas War.Permalink On twitter.com
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But I also knew of cases like the Cochabamba Water War in Quadrant 1, where movements won after absorbing unanswered deadly repression.On twitter.com
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I thought this might be a good first use for the event-based data in Ultimate Consequences, which compiles around 600 deaths in Bolivia since 1982. my.vanderbilt.edu/cbjorkjames/2021/09/ultimate-consequences-project-overview/ As best I can tell, very few events are left out, so selection bias shouldn't be a factor.Permalink On twitter.com
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So what happened? The rate of movement success after deadly repression was almost exactly the same regardless of whether there were deaths among security forces: 55-58%Permalink On twitter.com
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In cases where there was unanswered deadly repression, movements won 6 times, the state avoided concession 5 times, and there was one mixed outcome. In cases where security forces also suffered losses, movements won 7 times and the state avoided concessions 5 times.Permalink On twitter.com
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Here are the cases in Quadrant 1: Outcomes of protest events in cases with deadly state repression and zero state victimsPermalink On twitter.com
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Here are the cases in Quadrant 2: Outcomes of protest events in cases with deadly state repression and state forces killedPermalink On twitter.com
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You might notice that there are only 28 of the 48 cases in these two groups. Looking at cases without deadly state repression expands our picture…Permalink On twitter.com
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In four events, movements engaged in deadly violence claiming the lives of security forces. In 50% of those as well, they won demands. In both cases, long-term movements had endured prior violence. One was a retired miner's suicide protest.Permalink On twitter.com
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When movements or social forces engaged in violence against other civilians, the less violent party often won a moral victory anyway. There were six cases of this, and two more of dueling parties receiving state mediation.Permalink On twitter.com
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This analysis is in an article currently resubmitted with revisions to Journal of Latin American Studies. Contact me for the current version or stay tuned for publication info.Permalink On twitter.com