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The premise of public advice since December has been that Omicron was milder/less severe than Delta. Whether on not this was true in some technical sense (such as case fatality rate), Omicron was, in aggregate, deadlier. @hmkyale/1527666437661270018On twitter.com
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Four obvious implications: 1. We need to shift metrics for evaluating new variants. Case fatality rate is meaningless unless we also assess how many infections there will be. Crudely multiplying R0 × CFR would be an improvement.Permalink On twitter.com
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2. The public health response in December/January shows how to UNDERreact to a new variant. Future actions should deploy greater vaccination, isolation, testing, and NPIs than we did then. Yet all planning in the USA is to do even less.Permalink On twitter.com
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3. The arrival of Omicron was a giant missed opportunity for a new surge of vaccination, enlisting officials and leaders across the political spectrum to avoid deaths (which, this time like Delta, fell disproportionately on Red states and counties).Permalink On twitter.com
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4. If there were plans around Thanksgiving to "transition to the post-pandemic phase" or whatever, the underlying assumptions should have been re-tested in light of Omicron's increased deadliness (or whatever we call R0×CFR). Not just paused for 10 weeks.Permalink On twitter.com