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As official counts reach the once-unthinkable milestone of 1,000,000 COVID deaths in the USA, remember that the CDC has estimated there were 1.32 COVID deaths for every one reported. By this measure, we reached 921,000 deaths last October.Permalink On twitter.com
Mood -4 🙁
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Since this ratio was last calculated in October 2021, it's not clear if just multiplying the current 1 million by 1.32 is the best estimate of the true death toll or not.Permalink On twitter.com
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However, (1) many of the reasons for the undercount still apply, and may have gotten worse during the overloading of testing during Omicron; (2) even if we were now miraculously counting all COVID deaths, we had already accumulated a 223K undercount by Oct 2021.Permalink On twitter.com
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Why were some deaths not counted? The CDC points to… a fraction of false-negative tests among the infected; people who were ill but never tested for COVID; and people who got sick but didn't seek care. cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.htmlPermalink On twitter.com
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These CDC estimates were published in a peer reviewed article that studied deaths through May 2021. Iuliano, A. Danielle, et al. “Estimating Under-Recognized COVID-19 Deaths…” The Lancet Regional Health – Americas 1 (September 1, 2021). doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100019.On twitter.com
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If you're curious when, where, and in what age group these undercounts are larger, you can read Table 2 of the article on page 6 of the PDF or read it here (no reasonable alt text available; sorry).Permalink On twitter.com
