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@trvrb Thus is incredibly helpful @trvrb, but I have two technical questions: 1. Can we really assume there was no "Omicron-like" event during the initial year? If pre-vaccines most people were virus-naive, how would we tell which evolution was gane changing vs prior immunity.Permalink On twitter.com
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@trvrb 2. If we're modeling a random mutation shouldn't the x axis be number of replications, not time? With # of infections globally as a proxy?On twitter.com
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@trvrb If so, the first half year wasn't contributing much while Delta's S Asia wave was huge. thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00484-6/fulltext?utm_campaign=lancetcovid22&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialPermalink On twitter.com
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@trvrb I think statistically modeling based on one event is challenging but necessary. But if either concern applies, we should expect a second immune-escape in a shorter window than you have projected.Permalink On twitter.com
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@trvrb Oh, and 3. If prior immunity is an essential part of immune escaping mutation (maybe a prolonged infection is enough?), then the clock didn't start until the virus started encountering previously infected hosts.Permalink On twitter.com