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@Bob_Wachter This is a great thread. The only thing that reads confusing to me (and why I can't share it with someone I'm trying to explain this to) is the "given encounter." if that's an encounter w a sick person, yes nothing changes…
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@Bob_Wachter … but if we're talking about a meeting w a fríend of unknown infection status, then community prevalence matters for that too.
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@Bob_Wachter As the parent of only recently vaccinated kids and the child of a cancer patient, all under one roof in this pandemic, I've been doing this math daily for almost 2 years now.