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Entirely serious observers like @ScottGottliebMD can see a "decoupling" of COVID cases and hospitalization at the beginning of each major wave. Fits with positive narratives around vaccines, but also a cognitive bias that lagging indicators won't show up this time.
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This amounts to "lots of rain but no signs of flooding yet" reporting. Maybe we can do better... Treat coupled cases and deaths as a null hypothesis. Not read into early signs of lagging índicators. Insist on a statistical measure of decoupling, and not rely on our hopes.