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Here follows a lot of informed speculation on prosecuting decisions. Two meta-comments: @oddNihilist/1470505788145815554Permalink On twitter.com
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1. With independent prosecutors (either by tradition or institutional arrangements), we wouldn't have to speculate as to motives.Permalink On twitter.com
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2. Just because there *may* be political motives, doesn't mean we should discount procedural explanations...On twitter.com
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Bolivian investigations are slow, sometimes glacial. Some crimes have video, some have cooperating witnesses, some have neither.Permalink On twitter.com
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Sometimes timing is political, but sometimes the accused is so high-profile that an arrest any month would seem responsive to their latest situation while the actual timing is too slow to respond in that way.Permalink On twitter.com
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Conversely, institutions may have an incentive to delay prosecutions to avoid the appearance of political interference. Indicting candidates for office, sitting governors, and people leading anti-government strikes may all seem suspect.Permalink On twitter.com
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This could explain delays around Áñez, Camacho, and until this week Pumari. There may be dominoes that need to fall before Indicting the governor of Santa Cruz.Permalink On twitter.com
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"Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." Or at least treat incompetence and procedural necessity as a null hypothesis before ascribing political motives.Permalink On twitter.com