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If your model of US imperial power predicted that the United States would reject Arce's 2020 election and Castillo's 2021 election, consider revising it. (thread)Permalink On twitter.com
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US foreign policy has a preference for governments that lean right, but that has always been tempered by a need for local legitimacy, for allies who will predictably stay in power, and for maintaining influence with whoever the current government is.Permalink On twitter.com
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The US lacks the willingness to overturn elections that run overwhelmingly against it, like Bolivia 2020.On twitter.com
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The US may also find figures like Keiko Fujimori to be weighted down with historical baggage and excessive corruption.Permalink On twitter.com
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If the covert diplomatic record around the Pinochet coup is any clue, US Embassies are often flooded with offers of coups and plots, most of which are unlikely to succeed.Permalink On twitter.com
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Even under Kissinger, they had to say "no" most of the time.Permalink On twitter.com
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And sometimes, as Carter-era diplomatic cables from Bolivia reveal, the US takes a stand against military coups, as both immoral and destabilizing.Permalink On twitter.com
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If we understand the USA as a hegemonic, imperial, and capitalist power, capable of planning for the medium- and long-term, it makes sense that it can choose to be less impulsive than its would-be proxies…Permalink On twitter.com
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… capable of investing in winning the next election rather than overthrowing the current one, and capable of working with governments it doesn't like when they have popular legitimacy.Permalink On twitter.com