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Huge numbers of lives, disease-damaged bodies are at stake in how vigilant we are in shutting down the coronavirus…Permalink On twitter.com
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These graphs are from epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman's work, which is a model that doesn't factor in the emerging B117 variant of the virus. nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.htmlOn twitter.com
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Still, they show how 48 million infections hang in the balance of coronavirus policies, thereby potentially hundreds of thousands of deaths that could be avoided.Permalink On twitter.com
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(The mortality share will decline as older Americans, who are more vulnerable to dying from COVID, get vaccinated, but you can see that the bulk of the shifts are in the first two months.)Permalink On twitter.com
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Factor in the B117 variant, recently guesstimated at 1% of US infections, and the picture gets dramatically more urgent. @DrEricDing/1353297240610189315Permalink On twitter.com
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Early in January, Denmark's CDC advised harsh measures to reduce the number of infections before the variant becomes common. Here's why: @DrEricDing/1346899021621813249Permalink On twitter.com
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Zooming out from the next few months, we now realize that continued high infection rates will spin out new "variants of concern." Unless we want to stay on continual storm watch, we should aim for zero, like the COVID success countries have. @DrZoeHyde/1352934133261955075Permalink On twitter.com