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#BoliviaElections2020 How did Arce and Choquehuanca reassemble a majority? Where did votes move from 2019 to 2020? Some answers in a thread…On twitter.com
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Full write-up here… woborders.blog/2020/11/24/arce-reclaimed-majority/Permalink On twitter.com
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Here's what shifted: —MAS-IPSP wins w/ 504,693 more votes than in 2019. —Creemos 601,870 more votes than Bolivia Dice No —CC 464,967 fewer votes —Chi Hyun Chung switched parties & got 443,826 fewer votes —Four parties dropped out, after winning 168,169 votes in 2019Permalink On twitter.com
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So the parties to the left of zero largely gave their votes to the parties on the right.Permalink On twitter.com
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Corrected graphic:Permalink On twitter.com
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There are two easy narratives out there. If you focused on the topline of the election, you might assume that Arce/MAS-IPSP gained at Mesa's expense. OTOH, Evangelical Chi Hyun Chung & the MAS-IPSP compete for the same rural, indigenous voters.Permalink On twitter.com
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Diego Aliaga and Ana Lucía Velasco advance the latter hypothesis here (ebol20.github.io/elec-bol20/articulos/z100_mas_chi2019_mas2020.html) and also share totally vital quantitative work analyzing those voting tables that were used in both elections.Permalink On twitter.com
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Their proposition… What happenened in the election? The CHI Factor In other words, Chi's 2019 voters gave the MAS-IPSP a majority.Permalink On twitter.com
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Aliaga and Velasco: "Principally, the 7.3% of the vote which Chi lost in 2020 went in greater measure to the MAS and smaller measure to the CC. …" ¿Permalink On twitter.com
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Aliaga and Velasco: "The second evident change is that Creemos recovered the vote of Bolivia Dice No (21F), a bit of Chi's vote, and an even smaller bit of the MAS's vote, but managed to attract an important percentage from the CC."Permalink On twitter.com
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So the MAS-IPSP was fortified by Chi voters. Mesa was weakened by defectors to Camacho. A 10% margin widened to a 26% chasm.Permalink On twitter.com
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But I wanted to know how many voters went each way, so I dug into Aliaga et al.'s cluster analysis which breaks down voting tables into five clusters.Permalink On twitter.com
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You can see the clusters geographically on this cartogram (which enormously magnifies cities). Metro Santa Cruz is the yellow and green CRE patches The highland cities are CC+ light blue El Alto & the Altiplano are MAS++ dark blue Much of rural Bolivia is MAS+ orangePermalink On twitter.com
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Here's the result I found, based on the vote shifts documented in Aliaga et al.'s data:Permalink On twitter.com
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MAS-IPSP got 250K votes from Chi Hyun Chung 98K votes from small parties 40K net votes from Mesa (CC) and lost 2K votes to Creemos Creemos got 71K votes from Chi Hyun Chung 435K net votes from Mesa (CC) 29K votes from small parties on top of 260K from Bolivia Dice NoPermalink On twitter.com
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In areas where there is data, the "Chi factor" made up 64% of the MAS-IPSP vote gain. Chi Hyun Chung gave 66% of his vote loss to the MAS and 34% to Creemos and CC. (The dataset only investigates 76% of the MAS-IPSP vote gain, 88% of the Creemos vote gain.)Permalink On twitter.com
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That's the conclusion, the rest of the thread is showing my work.Permalink On twitter.com
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I had to recalculate the vote shifts in these clusters a bit since I treat Creemos as the successor to Bolivia Dice No.Permalink On twitter.com
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Here are the clusters showing how much the MAS and Creemos gained from each of the other parties (same colors throughout)Permalink On twitter.com
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Despite hemorrhaging votes nationally, Mesa and the CC consolidated 80,000 votes in a final cluster of voting tables, largely from Chi, but also from the MAS and non-competing parties.Permalink On twitter.com
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Values to the left of the zero indicate other parties that gained in these clusters. These often balance out, but interestingly PAN Bol gave up 30K votes to the MAS, reclaimed 16K from Bolivia Dice No, and another 10K from the CC. It was basically a whole new party in 2020.Permalink On twitter.com