CarwilBJ’s avatarCarwilBJ’s Twitter Archive—№ 26,782

    1. #BoliviaElections #eleccionesbolivia2020 Breaking down the MAS-IPSP vote share over the past 5 presidential elections (plus the term limit referendum) by department shows a few key patterns…
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  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
    Just as Evo Morales suffered broad-based losses (in all nine departments) between 2014 and 2019, the Arce-led MAS-IPSP made broad-based gains (everywhere but Beni) by Oct 2020.
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    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      While they gained everywhere, the big increases came in La Paz and Oruro, and secondarily in Cochabamba and Potosí. These were former MAS-IPSP voters coming home to them.
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      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
        Where did these gains happen? For this see impressive work by Arián Laguna at @cemees_mx: cemees.org/2020/10/25/quien-le-dio-la-victoria-al-mas-analisis-de-datos-electorales/
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        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
          Laguna explains that the 2019 to 2020 shift was overwhelmingly explained by the medium and large cities. The huge vote gain in El Alto (+142k / +22% vote share) is 47% of all votes gained nationwide by the MAS.
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          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
            Add in the MAS-IPSP's rebounds in Cocabamba city (+33k), La Paz (+31k), Sacaba (+15k), Sucre (+14k), and Quillacollo (+10k) and you have nearly the whole national shift.
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            1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
              Arce/Choquehuanca led the MAS-IPSP to its highest vote share since 2014, but they haven't quite recovered the dominance it held back then, in any department. (Obviously, they campaigned under an adverse govt and without incumbency this year.)
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              1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                Over time, there has been a great geographic evening out of MAS-IPSP support: less astounding dominance in the Altiplano, more backing in the lowlands.
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                1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                  In the process, La Paz department, and really the twin cities of La Paz and El Alto have become the swing sector between the MAS and its opponents. The defection of many in La Paz and El Alto from the coalition in 2016, 2019 was decisive, as was their return in 2020.
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                  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                    The MAS-IPSP's electoral dominance is based on its universal presence in every department and every municipality. The opposition parties are regional and disproportionately urban.
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                    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                      Listen to Vladimir Torrez on this last point: youtube.com/watch?v=7qzZcMSJZDo (from 44m onward)
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