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Luis Arce (@LuchoXBolivia) and David Choquehuanca didn't have to sway voters in Santa Cruz, the just had to win back ex-MAS voters in La Paz, Oruro, Chuquisaca, and to a lesser extent Potosí.
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If the early analysis holds, this is a rollback of the MAS-IPSP's losses in these departments between 2014 and 2019. (And most were baked in by the 2016 referendum.) woborders.blog/2019/10/22/understanding-the-end-of-the-evo-morales-majority/
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Updating with Tu Voto Cuenta (@TuVotoCuenta20) figures and corrected national numbers.