-
#BoliviaElections #EleccionesBolivia A year ago, a pause in first-round vote counting set off an explosion of street protest. While tensions remain high, there are some important differences in scenario this year…Permalink On twitter.com
♻️ 4 Retweets ❤️ 12 Favorites Mood 0
-
What hasn't changed is that the MAS candidate (now Luis Arce Catacora) leads Carlos Mesa by 7 to 10% in the polls and is within striking distance of a first-round victory.Permalink On twitter.com
-
However, the MAS has lost both incumbency in the executive branch and much power in the electoral branch.Permalink On twitter.com
-
This year's election is not coming on the heels of major anti-Morales demonstrations. Instead it is the left who has more recent protest momentum, largely in July-August.Permalink On twitter.com
-
Had the vote been cancelled, interrupted, or delayed again, we might expect MAS supporters to take to the streets and remobilize. Still can't rule out a sudden interruption if things go really badly for the anti-MAS parties at the polls.Permalink On twitter.com
-
On the other hand, if Arce achieves a 10%+ margin of victory, it will be harder for the right wing to blame incumbency or voter fraud by the authorities.Permalink On twitter.com
-
This is still the message of Luis Camacho's urge for his supporters to guard their votes and not trust the authorities. Unclear if Mesa, and the broad anti-fraud coalition of 2019 would join him. eldeber.com.bo/santa-cruz/al-votar-camacho-dice-que-no-tiene-confianza-en-la-transparencia-de-las-elecciones-y-pidio-custodiar_205076Permalink On twitter.com
-
On the other hand if Arce has a 5 to 10% lead in the count, the MAS may have doubts about losing votes to manipulation, but a strong incentive to focus on the second round race.Permalink On twitter.com
-
Any major post-election mobilization would rapidly become a two-sided mobilization. Still, violence is far from inevitable.Permalink On twitter.com
-
Given the tensions and the proliferation of inaccurate and partial information last year, please check your sources and exercise patience in covering breaking stories around the election.On twitter.com