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@jderpic @PepinaSediciosa @TSEBolivia @tse @opsoms @pahowho Look, these models aren't for election planning or sports scheduling or whatever. They are meant to advise health systems on whether their hospitals will collapse next month or not.On twitter.com
Mood -2 🙁
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@jderpic @PepinaSediciosa @TSEBolivia @tse @opsoms @pahowho If you run a weather forecast program it will give you predictions for 2 weeks, 2 months, or 2 years from now. But anything over ten days is not better than chance variation around the seasonal climate. So you don't use weather forecasts to decide on next month's baseball games.Permalink On twitter.com
Mood 0
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@jderpic @PepinaSediciosa @TSEBolivia @tse @opsoms @pahowho For me, coordinating election scheduling with scheduled public health interventions is reasonable, coordinating with modeled "peaks" in infection (which don't happen unless transmission is reduced) isn't.Permalink On twitter.com
Mood -2 🙁
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@jderpic @PepinaSediciosa @TSEBolivia @tse @opsoms @pahowho But supposing there is a national quarantine in late August. Why not pick and train the electoral table jurors before then and have the election as soon as it ends? Instead of postponing everything until after the quarantine.Permalink On twitter.com
Mood -1 🙁
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@jderpic @PepinaSediciosa @TSEBolivia @tse @opsoms @pahowho My prior is that elections are better sooner than later. If there's a clear covid-related reason to override that, great. The April quarantine definitely qualified.Permalink On twitter.com
Mood +6 🙂