CarwilBJ's avatarCarwilBJ's Twitter Archive—№ 24,977

                  1. Here's what we can learn about deadly political violence during the Evo Morales administration by putting it in context of the 38 years of democracy since 1982: 1. The Morales years were a return to the low levels of state-perpetrated violence that prevailed from 1982 to 1995.
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                  2. Carlos Mesa (Oct 2003-Jun 2005) and Evo Morales (Jan 2006 to Nov 2019) presided over similar levels of state and nonstate violence.
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                3. What Mesa and Morales had in common was largely keeping the military out of a policing role and negotiating with very active social movements, even when they directly opposed their rule.
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              4. If we squeeze all the deaths during the Morales' 14 years into a single figure, 138, we come very close to Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada's 14-month toll of 139, but the composition of these deaths is very different.
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            5. The key feature of this disparity is the relative prevalence of deaths in political conflict not involving the state. Again, Mesa and Morales are alike, so I've consolidated them here.
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          6. If we leave aside the deadly 2000-2003 period (marked by the Gas War, 2003 Tarifazo, and the peak of Laymi-Qaqachaka guerra de ayllus), we see that Morales and Mesa presided over less than half as many state-perpetrated deaths as the pre-2000 era.
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        7. On the other hand, the Mesa and Morales years saw somewhat more overall deaths per year, 9.7 and 10.0, respectively.
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      8. During this period the share of political conflict deaths caused by state security forces plummeted from a clear majority to 23%.
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    9. Part of this uptick in intra-civilian violence was partisan political conflict, which caused 26 deaths over Morales' term.
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      10. These deaths were evenly split between MAS and the opposition. Pro-MAS civilians killed 7 anti-MAS civilians and 6 municipal workers in El Alto. MAS supporters suffered 2 deaths at the hands of armed civilians in the 2007 Cochabamba clashes, and 11 at El Porvenir in 2008.
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        11. The pro-MAS violence mostly occurred late in Morales' term, including 4 deaths during the 2019 crisis. Anti-MAS civilians are credibly suspected of beating pro-MAS journalist Sebastián Moro then, likely leading to his death, but I'm not counting it in this total.
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          12. Partisan civilian conflict killed 26-27 people during the Morales term and 2 more after Evo's ouster (14 years) vs. eight deaths from 1987 to 2004, so this represents a major escalation in the deadliness of partisan conflict.
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            13. Again, more than half of these partisan conflict deaths were associated the left-right crisis of 2006-2008, which also involved deaths in state-civilian conflicts at La Calancha (3), the Cobija airport (2) and the Rosza raid (3).
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              14. The bigger story of lethal violence during the Morales years is local mining and land conflicts, which claimed 45 lives in incidents not involving the state directly.
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                15. These 45 deaths are a third of all deaths during the Morales era, more than the 33 deaths perpetrated by state forces, or the 26-27 deaths in partisan conflicts.
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                  Nearly all of this research is laid out in the Morales segment of my new research paper on deadly repression in Bolivia. woborders.blog/2020/05/19/research-paper-repression/
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