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WHO head @DrTedros: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all. Find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission … do not just let this fire burn.” #COVID19Permalink On twitter.com
♻️ 4 Retweets ❤️ 7 Favorites Mood -10 🙁
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< Disclaimer: What follows is a summary of the most useful things I've found on managing the COVID epidemic. My expertise includes public policy and literately reading scientific articles, but I'm not an epidemiologist or public health expert. >Permalink On twitter.com
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For all the talk about "flattening the curve," the success stories right now aren't just delaying infections, they are aggressively avoiding them… (Financial Times graphic)Permalink On twitter.com
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Instead their goal is the blue pathway… suppressing the epidemic now, with a possible lower curve far in the future when limits are lifted. Chart from "How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?" thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltextPermalink On twitter.com
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This is a hit-COVID-with-everything-we-have strategy. Because the peak of the fully spread epidemic is way, way higher than we can manage. @bertcmiller/1238877428971438081Permalink On twitter.com
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(even while "flatten the curve" may understate the goal, 99% of what is being touted to flatten the curve is a necessary part of the contain-and-delay strategy of the blue curve. plus it's easier to understand)Permalink On twitter.com
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As Joscha Bach is arguing here, the hope of delay isn't really that we can sneak the epidemic under our medical system's capacity…Permalink On twitter.com
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Yes, "avoiding an epidemic peak that overwhelms health-care services" (Lancet) is important. And we should be building up such capacity like gangbusters if we win the months needed to do so.Permalink On twitter.com
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But the real hope is that the delayed peak will happen when the parameters of the contest with COVID are fundamentally different: "to wait for vaccine development and manufacture on scale and antiviral drug therapies," and to cross our fingers that transmission dampens in summer.Permalink On twitter.com
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In individual regions, the goal isn't just flattening but containing what @trvrb calls "sparks" (showers of individual cases) that grow into fires of community transmission. That's what's been growing undetected in the USA for the past six weeks. @trvrb/1238643280679563265Permalink On twitter.com
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Here's an evaluation of the containment vs. mitigation debate by C. Raina MacIntyre: "On a knife’s edge of a COVID-19 pandemic: is containment still possible?" phrp.com.au/issues/march-2020-volume-30-issue-1/on-a-knifes-edge-of-a-covid-19-pandemic-is-containment-still-possible/Permalink On twitter.com
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MacIntyre: "Delay provides time for preparedness, expansion of quarantine and isolation capacity, and shortens the time to availability of a vaccine."Permalink On twitter.com
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The leaders (in dealing with large scale outbreaks) are China and South Korea. Two different strategies but both match @DrTedros' advice.Permalink On twitter.com
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Read what China did here. A lot of it isn't just isolation or draconian policies. who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (this is from p. 32)Permalink On twitter.com
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South Korea reports downward trending new infections… @HelenBranswell/1239011045429121025On twitter.com