-
Further perspective on the alleged #FraudeElectoral in Bolivia 2019: Overall, this is a case involving a small vote share interference in the final results of 0.5 to 2.5%. It should be relatively hard to see this manipulation statistically unless you figure out where to look.Permalink On twitter.com
♻️ 2 Retweets ❤️ 14 Favorites Mood -1 🙁
-
But statistical noise doesn't override concrete evidence of manipulation.Permalink On twitter.com
-
In some cases, it's hard to tease out whether there were errors or biases. (Or biases in catching errors in one direction but not the other.) In others (100% vote tallies, more voters than registrants, dead voters) it's more clear cut.On twitter.com
-
Even the clearest signs of such manipulation could have been local partisans' private acts or a national plan. But the glare of a comprehensive audit brought them into the light.Permalink On twitter.com
-
There was an off-books server that may or may not have manipulated votes, but whose existence undermines the integrity of the election count regardless, prompting a re-vote.Permalink On twitter.com
-
And there were before-the-election flaws and systemic modes of cheating that animated popular anger and aren't resolvable within a fraud/no-fraud framework.Permalink On twitter.com
-
If the national leadership of the MAS-IPSP orchestrated fraud (and that is far from obvious based on what is now known), it was the most spectacularly counterproductive fraud in history. But, if so, it wouldn't be their only recent act of hubris.Permalink On twitter.com
-
If so, we should eventually expect receipts and testimonies from people who systematically manipulated the voting data.Permalink On twitter.com
-
If not, the close election, mass protests, and audit process shone a rare glare of scrutiny on shady practices (common to many parties, including in the USA) that sought to tilt the vote.Permalink On twitter.com
-
Few Bolivians would hesitate to call the latter fraud. Just as I think I wouldn't hesitate to call out the Republican vote manipulation and voter suppression in numerous US elections.Permalink On twitter.com
-
The only fair resolution to a disputed election is a new contest on neutral ground. Bolivians aren't getting that now. Even blatant, coordinated fraud would not justify deadly repression that followed Morales' resignation.Permalink On twitter.com