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#EleccionesBo2020 Early polling by Ciesmori shows MAS-IPSP candidate Luis Arce with a solid lead and some chance of a first-round victory. Arce/MAS: 31.6% Mesa/CC: 17.1% Añez/Juntos: 16.5%Permalink On twitter.com
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In Bolivian elections, the key thresholds are 40% support and a 10% margin of victory. Both are needed to avoid a runoff, but these percentages are only as part of the number of valid votes for a candidate, so Arce is closer than it looks at first glance. Adjusted…Permalink On twitter.com
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The predictable reactions to these numbers: fingerpointing among the runners up, as depicted by @pagina_siete cartoonist Abecor…On twitter.com
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@pagina_siete While Arce is off to an early lead in the first-round, according to this poll, he is edged out in head-to-head simulations of the second round:Permalink On twitter.com
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@pagina_siete And the poll also found a solid tilt away from the MAS candidate when it asked people who they would vote for overall.Permalink On twitter.com
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@pagina_siete The polling firm involved, CiesMori, was middle of the pack in the final 2019 polls and predicted a just-under-10% advantage for Morales, very close to the reported (but disputed) outcome. woborders.blog/2019/10/15/uncertain-election/Permalink On twitter.com