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#EleccionesBo2019 With reports from the OAS, European Union both out, and critiques offered by CEPR, it's time to see what we know about election integrity, bias, irregularity, and fraud.Permalink On twitter.com
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Like all those in this debate, my prior perspective shapes my standard of proof. I see the Bolivian electoral process as distinctly transparent, but also its officials as often partisan (the latter is often true globally and in many places elec officials must be bipartisan).Permalink On twitter.com
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My goal has been to understand what is going on, rather than to accuse or defend one side, so I've adopted an informal preponderance of the evidence standard in my judgments, and tried to state any leaps of logic that build on known facts.Permalink On twitter.com
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I have watched commentary on Bolivia spiral into two incompatible camps who speak from two different sets of "facts" and abhor this process. I think it's our job as researchers to accurately describe a single reality, not act as lawyers or propagandists who further the split.Permalink On twitter.com
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The questions of "was it fraud?" and "was it a coup?" are logically independent. It's possible to conclude #FueFraude and #FueGolpe.Permalink On twitter.com
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The position of the post-election opposition movement surfaced in the cabildo's prior to the election. They simultaneously vowed to defend the results of 2016 (no Evo candidacy) and to vigorously mobilize to defend their (2019) votes from fraud.Permalink On twitter.com
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As the EU Report notes, concern with fraud was a majority view among Bolivians, according to polls before the election.Permalink On twitter.com
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Let me define the four terms roughly; Electoral Integrity requires a nonpolitical, tamper-proof electoral process. This is what a skeptical public needs to accept the result of a closely contested election.Permalink On twitter.com
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Electoral irregularities are deviations from integrity, places where bias or fraud could leak in and alter the process.Permalink On twitter.com
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Bias in decisionmaking can alter the outcome, especially when there are partisans making decisions inside the electoral process. (and all electoral counts involve hundreds if not thousands of human decisions to address errors, ambiguities, and rule violations)Permalink On twitter.com
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Finally fraud is a deliberate, partisan effort to change the vote count and the will of the voters. It is a subset of irregularities, but the boundaries aren't the same for all observers.On twitter.com