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#BoliviaEnCrisis #FraudeElectoralBolivia New quantitative of analysis of the Bolivian vote count before and after the pause concludes there is statistical evidence of fraud, on the order of 2 67% of the vote. @DiegoEscobari/1199064648290578433Permalink On twitter.com
♻️ 11 Retweets ❤️ 20 Favorites Mood -4 🙁
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For me, the outstanding observation here is the vote shift before and after the break:Permalink On twitter.com
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It is extremely unlikely that the late-counted precincts liked Evo Morales & MAS more, Carlos Mesa & CC less, but every other party almost exactly the same.Permalink On twitter.com
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(This is one of many arguments that circulated on Twitter soon after the count, but which I have waited for expert analysis before accepting.)Permalink On twitter.com
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The analysis also considers municipality and precinct effects, each of which make the detected fraud smaller.Permalink On twitter.com
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There are very significant inter-municipality differences and some inter-community differences that could explain some variation, so we shouldn't take 2.67% as a hard minimum.Permalink On twitter.com
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These could be estimated using the 2014 and 2016 election data and I would hope @DiegoEscobari or other authors would check the anomalies against those patterns.Permalink On twitter.com
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I would also be curious as to what this analysis would show if the experiment were instead tuned to the 5% late-timestamped election tally sheets that the OAS audit analyzed. @DiegoEscobariOn twitter.com