CarwilBJ’s avatarCarwilBJ’s Twitter Archive—№ 21,837

            1. …in reply to @samhusseini
              @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet I try to explicitly back what I support, and describe as honestly as possible what I'm reporting on. In the past week, I've been blisteringly critical about people whose political positions are driving their descriptions.
          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
            @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet Unlike many people who are commenting on this situation, I've been immersed in the events and conversations in Bolivia, though while writing from the US, at least since August.
        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
          @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet Debate over whether to name the overthrow/fall/resignation of Evo Morales a "coup" is a case in point.
      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
        @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet Understandably, many Bolivians (including major parts of the grassroots left) who helped create the crisis over electoral fraud (which now appears confirmed) strongly resisted having that crisis being labeled as the work of the military or Camacho.
    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet My own POV on this is that I've spent the last twelve years studying how Bolivians overthrow their government, looking at events from 1936 to now. I'm annoyingly academic on this, but I stated my reasons and evaluation.
  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
    @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet But beyond being academic or pedantic, my concern is to recognized that Bolivians have the right to overthrow their government (as they did in 2003 and 2005, as the left threatened to do in the 2010 gasolinazo, etc etc) and…
    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
      @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet they have the right to try to convince the police and military not to shoot them when they do so.
      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
          @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet Based on my read of the mobilization, by November 10, Evo Morales was going to be obliged to annul elections, and unless there was a profound shift from either him or the movements, to resign.
          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
            @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet This was why stalwart left grassroots movements, like the Bolivian Workers' Central joined the resignation demand.
            1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
              @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet But also, a series of disastrous moves followed… 1. The military neither allowed time for Morales to move towards concessions, nor opened negotiations on succession. 2. The MAS leadership, spooked or defiant or both,* abandoned any claim to succession itself.
              1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet * Or neither, if Kaliman and the Armed Forced demanded that the whole succession chain, including Susana Rivero and Adriana Salvatierra, resign. And THAT would be a coup.
                1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                  @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet 3. Mesa declared he had nothing to negotiate with Morales, when he had every interest in a neutral caretaker government. 4. The rest of the MAS-IPSP, likely too shocked to react, didn't slow down the process and try to use its parliamentary majority to determine the next steps.
                  1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                    @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet 5. The military and the police are responsible for their own escalating violence under the transition government. 6. Añez and the parliamentary right have utterly failed to understand their caretaker role.
                    1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                      @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet This last is something which even the right-wing press knows will either get fixed or blow up in their faces: eldeber.com.bo/156552_mision-crucial-de-la-presidenta-jeanine-anez
                      1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                        @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet If your model for Bolivia 2019 is Chile 1973, you see every righ-wing move now as signs of permanent disaster. I see the current situation as much more like Bolivia 2003 or 2005: an interim government that will have hold elections…
                        1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                          @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet … and face the wrath of the public if it tries to grab too much power. With the present danger of deadly police/military violence along the way.
                          1. …in reply to @CarwilBJ
                            @samhusseini @AndeanInfoNet What I'd like to see is real pressure to constrain Añez, force negotiations with the MAS, ensure rapid and fair elections, and reassert the important limits on military violence that have existed in Bolivia since 2004.