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#BoliviaEnCrisis Añez is an interim president from a minority party who has appointed a partisan cabinet. The MAS-IPSP majority had its first session last night, giving an institutional face to Evo Morales' plurality of voters. Bolivia remains on edge.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Continuing risks: Exclusion of the MAS-IPSP from the political arena. Deadly policing by the Armed Forces. Partisan violence in a conflict that cannot be solved by force.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Another danger is that Añez will attempt to reshape Bolivia politically, economically, or culturally when she has zero mandate to do so.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis The best case is that Añez delegates the election to nonpartisan technocrats and otherwise treats her mandate as a 90-day election commercial.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis There are many, many worse cases.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis The MAS-IPSP faces an extreme dilemma. Does it rally for Evo Morales' return (as the Delegates proposed last night) or prepare to contest the election without him.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis It's a personalistic party so it's hard to imagine not running Evo atop the ticket, but Añez's move to bar re-election has a lot of public support. No mutually agreeable legal arena.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis However if the IACHR were to rule on whether reelection is a human right, that would be a nearly neutral arena. (IACHR's legitimacy substantially greater than OAS.)Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Big wounds within the grassroots left over the past month. However joint protests against any signs of racism or power-grabbing by the Añez government could begin to heal them.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis There is a deep skepticism of politicians and the state in Bolivia's grassroots and indigenous movements, and lots of room for common ground on issues not happening at the polls.On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Carlos Mesa faces tough choices on whether to campaign to attract the radical Right or keep the center-left to center-right coalition he gathered in the October election.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Unclear how much unseating Evo was the political glue that held Mesa's coalition together.Permalink On twitter.com
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#BoliviaEnCrisis Overall, the past 24 hours have seen bad signs in the political arena but some lessening of violence over prior days. Still a dangerous time.Permalink On twitter.com