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#Bolivia #BoliviaElecciones2019 The OAS has released its initial audit report which concludes the October 20 vote result was unreliable. @cedib_com/1193477537801875457?s=19Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS report: both the rapid count and official count used servers that were vulnerable to hacking.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS report: while the initial voting paper time stamps had a normal distribution, the approval time stamps had an extreme anomaly affecting 5% of votes.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS audit: This final 5% of votes was statistically very different than the first 95%.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS: In these last 290,402 votes, Morales was up 15% over previous voting while Mesa was down 15%. “Very unusual behavior" of the data.On twitter.com
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My aside: other analysts have pointed out that Morales seemed to gain at the expense of Mesa but not Chi and Ortiz, suggesting manipulation.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit (my translation): "In the 4 areas reviewed (technology, chain of custody, integrity of the records, and statistical projections), we found irregularities, ranging from very serious to indicative."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: "… This leads the technical audit team to question the results of the October 20 election."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS audit: "In the computational component, grave security faults were discovered that affected both the rapid and final count systems."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: "… A clear manipulation of the TREP [Rapid Count] system was discovered, which affected the results of both the Rapid Count and the official count."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: 1,575 voting tables representing 350k votes were calculated using TREP data. This exceeds the 40k vote margin ensuring a first-round Morales victory.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: "For this reason, the audit team cannot validate [Evo Morales'] first-round victory."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: Technical manipulation is so severe that it should be investigated (and by implication, prosecuted, though the report doesn't say that) by the Bolivian government.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: On-paper irregularities also undermine the integrity of the result.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit reviewed 176 election table records from Argentina; 38% had more voters than people registered.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit: "Taking in account the statistical projections, it is possible that" Morales won 1st place, but "improbable that he had obtained the 10% advantage to avoid a second round."Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit conclusion: "The auditing team cannot validate the results of this election, and therefore recommends another" vote.Permalink On twitter.com
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OAS Audit conclusion: "Any future process must rely on new electoral authorities to be able to carry out trustworthy elections."Permalink On twitter.com