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A massive poll of Bolivian voters, carried out by the public university UMSA, projects Evo Morales' vote share at 31.1%, which would be his lowest in 17 years. clarin.com/mundo/encuesta-bolivia-evo-morales-sigue-liderando-intencion-voto-evitaria-balotaje_0_TcVff1p.html
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Evo Morales (31.1%) still leads Carlos Mesa (24.9%), but would face a two-person run-off if the vote were held today. clarin.com/mundo/encuesta-bolivia-evo-morales-sigue-liderando-intencion-voto-evitaria-balotaje_0_TcVff1p.html
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The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has prohibited publication of the poll in Bolivia. Electoral speech is highly regulated in Bolivia, and the pollsters allegedly broke the rules by receiving funding from the Ecuadorian and Colombia observer missions. clarin.com/mundo/encuesta-bolivia-evo-morales-sigue-liderando-intencion-voto-evitaria-balotaje_0_TcVff1p.html
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By interviewing 14,238 people, face to face and in or near their homes, Tu Vota Cuenta / UMSA produced an impressive poll, with a larger sample than other Bolivian election polls.
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The poll was taken August 31–September 2 and therefore likely reveals some but not all of the political fallout from the #BoliviaFires, which continue to rage today.
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UMSA faculty have issued a statement defending the poll's methods and legality @FranklinPareja/1172311627154251776