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Bernie's 2016 fundraising was a major outlier, yet @perrybaconjr analysis builds most of this article on the assumption that you can generalize from past averages to Bernie 2020. @perrybaconjr/1108442574300372992Permalink On twitter.com
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This logical leap takes up a LOT of this article (red highlighting), even as Bacon acknowledges that Bernie's 2016 fundraising is not the average.Permalink On twitter.com
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Use of available data that is actually about the candidates involved (green highlighting) comes later and is grounds for further speculation. The yellow is speculative generalization based on the race and gender of 2018 candidates.Permalink On twitter.com
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What seems particularly weird (or off-brand for @FiveThirtyEight) is that the actual dataset from 2016 isn't mined very much.On twitter.com
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The LA Times analysis of Bernie's donations has a lot of detail, and emphasizes both the unemployed and retired, and wealthy well-educated enclaves as key to his donor base… latimes.com/projects/la-na-pol-sanders-donors/Permalink On twitter.com
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Bacon takes the LA Times' conclusion that high-education counties are the biggest donors as evidence of a high-income bias. But the education-income relationship is mediated by age, and Sanders donors are young.Permalink On twitter.com
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This analysis feels like punditry-informing-data and not the other way around. Usually both @perrybaconjr and @FiveThirtyEight do better on that front.Permalink On twitter.com